John Bolton Critiques Trump’s Oil Tariffs, Warns of India-Russia Shift
Former National Security Advisor John Bolton has sharply criticized President Donald Trump for implementing tariffs on Indian imports of Russian oil. Bolton expressed his concerns via social media platform X, stating that this decision could inadvertently strengthen ties between India and Russia, which goes against U.S. national interests.
Bolton labelled the tariff strategy as an “unforced U.S. error,” asserting that it reflects a significant flaw in the administration’s strategic thinking. His comments come as the price of West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 2% to reach $64 per barrel, just ahead of a crucial summit scheduled for Friday between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.
Concerns Over Inconsistent Tariff Application
The former National Security Advisor noted the selective application of these oil tariffs, pointing out that while India was targeted, China, which also purchases Russian crude, was exempted from similar penalties. Bolton commented, “This lack of focus by the Trump Administration is an unforced error.” With India importing over one-third of its oil from Russia, it ranks as the second-largest buyer of Russian crude, following China. This energy relationship plays a crucial role in ongoing U.S.-India trade negotiations, with bilateral goods trade amounting to approximately $129 billion in 2024.
Geopolitical Implications and Market Reactions
Bolton suggested that Putin may recognize he has “pushed Trump too far” and could be willing to offer concessions on issues beyond Ukraine, such as potential U.S. investments or discussions regarding a successor to the New Start treaty, which is set to expire in 2026. Trump acknowledged a 25% chance that the meeting with Putin could fail completely, stating, “I’ll know within the first two minutes.” He characterized the Alaska summit as an opportunity to “set the table for the next meeting.”
The energy markets displayed varied responses to the rising geopolitical tensions. The U.S. Oil Fund (USO) has seen a decline of 10% from its July highs, despite the recent rebound in prices. Analysts at Goldman Sachs project limited short-term disruptions to Russian oil supply, regardless of the outcomes from the upcoming summit.
Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen confirmed that “secondary tariffs on India” could be escalated if negotiations do not yield positive results, emphasizing that “all options are on the table.” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reportedly set to meet with Trump in September 2024 during the UN General Assembly to discuss trade agreements and potential resolutions regarding tariffs.
As the situation develops, the ramifications of the tariffs and the summit could have lasting impacts on both energy markets and international relations.
