Putin Demands Donetsk as Peace Deal Condition Amidst Military Struggles
Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly told former U.S. President Donald Trump that his forces could conquer the contested Donetsk region by October, provided Ukraine concedes the territory as part of a peace agreement. This assertion has raised skepticism among Ukrainian officials and American analysts, who point to a long history of Russia’s difficulties in capturing the area.
Despite claims of impending success, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlight that Russia has failed to secure Donetsk after more than a decade of attempts, including over three years of intense conflict. Current assessments suggest that while Putin may aim to gain the remaining 30% of Donetsk under Ukrainian control, achieving this by October appears unlikely.
George Barros, head of the ISW’s Russia team, described the notion that Moscow could achieve such a goal as “hyperbolic.” He emphasized that even under optimistic scenarios, it could take Russia approximately 475 days to fully capture Donetsk, projecting completion around December 2026. Ukrainian sources echoed this sentiment, dismissing the idea that they would surrender the region.
Speaking during a meeting with Trump in Alaska, Putin demanded not only Donetsk but also the Luhansk, Crimea, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions as preconditions for concluding his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has ridiculed these demands, noting the resilience of Ukrainian forces who have successfully defended against Russian advances.
Negotiations surrounding Donetsk have been described as pivotal. One source indicated, “Every issue is an ancillary issue, except Donetsk.” Over the past year, Russian efforts to capture the remainder of Donetsk have faltered, with ISW reporting a modest advancement of just over six miles across several campaigns.
The prolonged struggle is exemplified by the battle for the town of Toretsk, which only fell to Russian control on August 1 after 14 months of conflict. Russia now faces challenges in maintaining its hold on this territory. Barros noted that while summer has historically been a period of intensified military activity for Russia, the upcoming muddy season in fall is likely to hinder further progress.
The situation in Avdiivka mirrors these challenges, with reports indicating that Ukrainian defenses have effectively resisted Russian advances. A U.S. military veteran, known by the callsign “Jackie,” highlighted the stark disparity in firepower during combat scenarios, stating, “It took the Russians from 2017 to 2024 to take Avdiivka.”
Despite recent claims by Russia of progress in eastern Ukraine, including the logistical hub Pokrovsk, Ukrainian officials assert that their forces continue to repel attacks. Over the past week alone, Kyiv reported over 400 Russian casualties as they seek to maintain control over strategic cities such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which form a critical defense line in the Donbas region.
Ukrainian officials maintain that any territory not currently occupied by Russian soldiers remains non-negotiable. “It’s not acceptable, but we don’t want to be the person who said ‘no,’ because for us, it’s important to go forward [with the US],” a Kyiv official remarked.
As the conflict continues, both sides appear entrenched in their positions, with Ukraine committed to defending its territory against ongoing Russian aggression. The future of Donetsk remains uncertain, but the resolve of Ukrainian forces suggests that they will not yield easily to external pressures.
