GAZA CITY – As the conflict between Israel and Hamas intensifies, misinformation about the situation in Gaza is spreading rapidly on social media platforms. Recent posts falsely claim that a Harvard University study has reported nearly 400,000 Palestinians are missing in the region. These assertions have been widely shared, causing significant confusion and concern.
Breaking: Misleading Claims Circulate Online
One viral post on the platform X, shared over 35,700 times, states, “Israel has ‘disappeared’ nearly 400,000 Palestinians in Gaza since 2023.” The post further alleges that Harvard confirmed this as an ongoing holocaust. However, these claims are based on a misunderstanding of the data and have been debunked by experts.
Key Details Emerge
Contrary to the claims, Harvard University has not published any report on the subject. The misrepresented data originates from a report by Yaakov Garb, a professor at Israel’s Ben Gurion University. His study, shared on the Harvard Dataverse, focused on the spatial analysis of aid distribution in Gaza, not the number of missing persons.
“If anyone had asked me about these numbers I would have set things straight right away,” said Yaakov Garb, the report’s author.
By the Numbers
The erroneous estimate comes from a Medium post that incorrectly uses Garb’s map to claim a large number of Palestinians are unaccounted for. The post subtracts the population of Gaza’s three main centers—Gaza City, central refugee camps, and the Muwasi area—from the pre-war population, leading to the inaccurate figure of 377,000 missing people.
Gaza’s pre-war population: 2.227 million
Current population in main centers: 1.85 million
Erroneous missing estimate: 377,000
Expert Analysis
Shelly Culbertson, a senior policy researcher at RAND, expressed skepticism about the inflated numbers. According to a study published in The Lancet, the actual number of missing people is estimated to be between 15,000 to 38,000.
“It is unlikely that numbers of people buried under rubble could increase to 400,000,” Culbertson noted.
Background Context
The map used in the Medium post was intended to highlight the challenges of accessing aid distribution points, not to estimate missing persons. Additionally, the map contained a typo regarding the population in the Muwasi area, which Garb plans to correct.
Many Palestinians have also left Gaza since the conflict began in October 2023. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics reported in January that approximately 100,000 had left, a factor not considered in the misleading Medium post.
What Comes Next
Garb lamented the spread of misinformation, emphasizing the harm it causes to the Palestinian cause and the efforts of those working to assist the region. He urged for a more responsible dissemination of information to avoid further damage.
“They’ve done a disservice to the Palestinian cause, which they are ostensibly trying to further,” Garb stated.
The situation highlights the need for critical evaluation of information and the importance of relying on verified sources. As the conflict continues, accurate reporting remains crucial for understanding the realities on the ground.
