On Friday, President Donald Trump made a bold assertion at the White House, declaring his new domestic policy bill as “the most popular bill ever signed in the history of our country.” However, this statement starkly contrasts with public opinion data, which consistently shows the bill’s widespread unpopularity.
Despite Trump’s enthusiastic proclamation, multiple polls indicate a different reality. A Fox News poll conducted in mid-June revealed that 59% of registered voters opposed the bill, while only 38% supported it. Similarly, a Quinnipiac University poll from late June found 55% opposition and 29% support. These figures are echoed by a Pew Research Center poll in early June, which reported 49% opposition and just 29% in favor.
Polls Paint a Grim Picture
Analyzing these numbers, CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten commented,
“You just never see numbers this poor. I have been trying to look through the history books to find if there was another piece of legislation that was on the verge of passing that was as unpopular as this one, and…I cannot find one.”
Further analysis by CNN senior reporter Aaron Blake highlighted that the bill is “more unpopular than any piece of major legislation passed since at least 1990,” based on data from George Washington University political science professor Chris Warshaw. Data journalist G. Elliott Morris also noted,
“On average across pollsters and methods, 31% of Americans support the One Big Beautiful Bill, while 54% oppose it. That net rating of -23 is, to put it mildly, absolutely abysmal.”
Historical Context and Expert Opinions
The announcement comes as Trump faces mounting criticism over his handling of various domestic issues. Historically, legislation’s popularity can shift after implementation, as seen with the Affordable Care Act, which gained favor post-enactment. However, experts argue that the current bill’s initial reception is unusually negative.
While it’s possible that Trump has access to private polling data showing different results, he has not provided such evidence publicly. The White House has not responded to requests for clarification on the president’s statement.
Additional Claims and Fact-Checking
In addition to his claims about the bill’s popularity, Trump made other assertions during his White House remarks. He stated that the bill eliminates taxes on Social Security for seniors, which is misleading. The bill introduces a temporary additional tax deduction for seniors, not a complete elimination of taxes. The White House claims that this will result in 88% of seniors not paying taxes on Social Security benefits, up from 64% under current law. However, this still leaves millions of seniors who will continue to pay taxes.
Trump also repeated a claim that President Joe Biden allowed “21 million” migrants into the country. This figure is inaccurate, as official records show fewer than 11 million migrant encounters during Biden’s administration, with many being swiftly expelled. Even accounting for undetected entries, the total does not approach 21 million.
Implications and Future Outlook
The move represents a significant challenge for the administration as it seeks to rally support for its legislative agenda. The stark contrast between Trump’s claims and public sentiment underscores the difficulties in gaining widespread approval for contentious policies.
Looking forward, the administration may need to focus on communicating the bill’s benefits more effectively to shift public perception. As history shows, the impact of legislation often becomes clearer over time, potentially altering its popularity.
For now, the bill’s unpopularity remains a critical hurdle, raising questions about the administration’s strategy and the potential political ramifications heading into future election cycles.
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