Russia, Belarus Launch Major Drills Amid Rising NATO Tensions
UPDATE: Russia and Belarus are set to begin significant joint military drills on September 15, 2023, escalating tensions in Eastern Europe. This comes just days after Poland accused Moscow of increased aggression following drone incursions into its airspace.
The Zapad exercises, which will be held near Borisov, east of Minsk, have NATO’s eastern flank members—particularly Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—on high alert. All three nations have fortified their security measures, with Poland ordering a complete border closure with Belarus for the duration of the drills.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the current situation as “critical,” indicating that Poland is closer to “open conflict” than at any time since World War II. This alarming assessment follows Polish jets scrambling to intercept Russian drones earlier this week.
“These are planned exercises, they are not aimed against anyone,”
stated Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, dismissing Polish claims of aggression.
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of the drills’ implications, stating, “The meaning of such actions by Russia is definitely not defensive and is directed precisely against not only Ukraine.”
The Zapad exercises, typically held every four years, are particularly concerning this time as they are the first since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine. They will run until September 16, 2023. While previous iterations saw as many as 200,000 troops, this year’s participation is expected to be significantly lower, reflecting Russia’s ongoing military commitments in Ukraine.
Initially, Belarus had announced involvement from 13,000 troops, but that figure has reportedly been halved. Tusk noted that the drills simulate the occupation of the Suwalki corridor, a critical gap between Poland and Lithuania, flanked by Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which is considered a strategic vulnerability for NATO.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has downplayed concerns surrounding the exercises, labeling them as “utter nonsense.” Earlier this year, Belarusian officials claimed the drills would be moved away from the borders with Poland and Ukraine to “reduce tensions.” Despite this, Poland has tightened border controls and restricted air traffic.
In a show of solidarity, Lithuania and Latvia have also announced partial airspace closures in response to the drills. Adding to the tension, Russia’s recent deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus has intensified scrutiny of the upcoming exercises. Reports indicate that the drills will include training for Russia’s new nuclear-capable missile, Oreshnik.
Military analysts are divided on the significance of the drills. Some, like Alexander Khramchikhin, claim they are merely routine and lack special significance. Others, like Vassily Kashin, emphasize the seriousness of the exercises as both a demonstration of force and real combat training.
The concurrent military activities by Russia and NATO nations reflect a continuing cycle of tension reminiscent of the Cold War. As NATO members plan their own counter-drills through September, the focus will remain on the evolving dynamics in Eastern Europe.
The international community is urged to stay alert as these military exercises unfold, given the potential for escalation and their implications for regional security.
