New Siena Poll: Hochul Leads Stefanik, Blakeman by Double Digits

UPDATE: A new Siena Poll reveals that New York Governor Kathy Hochul holds a commanding lead over both Rep. Elise Stefanik and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. Hochul is ahead by a significant 19 points against Stefanik (49-30%, with 20% undecided) and boasts a 25-point lead over Blakeman (50-25%, with 21% undecided).

This poll, conducted from December 8-12, 2025, among 801 New York State registered voters, signals critical implications for the upcoming elections. With the primary elections just six months away, Hochul’s substantial leads could shape voter dynamics in New York.

Voter sentiment shows overwhelming support for key issues. A striking 65% of voters back universal free childcare for infants through pre-K, funded by increased taxes on those earning more than $1 million. Additionally, 50-41% of New York City voters favor eliminating bus fares, also financed through higher taxes on high earners.

In a notable shift, Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani sees an increase in favorability, now rated at 46-31% statewide, a rise from a previous 40-40%. A majority of voters believe his election will benefit New York City, with a 66-25% margin among city residents.

Pollster Steven Greenberg emphasized the significance of the findings: “Hochul maintains a solid lead over both challengers, and with undecided voters still making up a substantial portion, the dynamics could shift as we approach the primaries.” Hochul enjoys support from over 75% of Democrats, while Stefanik leads among Republicans at 82-7%.

Despite a slight uptick in favorability ratings for Hochul to 43-41%, she still struggles to break the 50% mark in a state where 48% of voters are Democrats. Meanwhile, Stefanik and Blakeman remain largely unknown to many voters, a critical hurdle as the election approaches.

Voter expectations vary on key issues: while many trust Hochul to ensure access to healthcare and safety, there is skepticism regarding both candidates’ ability to make life more affordable.

Support for universal childcare remains robust, particularly among Democrats, with 80% backing the initiative. Conversely, a small majority of Republicans oppose it, highlighting a deep partisan divide on such social policies.

As for Mamdani, he enjoys a favorable view from a majority of Democrats and shows improved ratings among independents. However, perceptions of collaboration with former President Trump remain mixed, with many voters doubtful about their potential partnership.

The poll also indicates a growing sentiment against the Trump Administration’s actions, with 58-65% of voters believing they have gone too far on various issues, further complicating the political landscape.

As we look ahead, the implications of these poll results could significantly influence voter turnout and strategy in the upcoming elections. With the primary season fast approaching, all eyes will be on how these candidates adapt and respond to voter concerns.

This Siena Poll carries a margin of error of ±4.1%, providing a crucial snapshot of current voter sentiment in New York. Voters will be watching closely as developments unfold in the coming weeks.