Lowe’s Predicts Major Remodeling Surge by 2026 Amid Housing Shift
URGENT UPDATE: Marvin Ellison, the Chairman and CEO of Lowe’s, has just announced a bold prediction for 2026: a significant surge in home remodeling spending as the housing market shifts. This forecast comes as the home improvement sector, which has faced prolonged challenges post-pandemic, signals a turning point that could reshape the industry landscape.
The current stagnation in major renovation projects is nearing its end, according to Ellison. He attributes this to a combination of aging housing stock and a thawing mortgage environment. With nearly $4 trillion in untapped home equity among American households, the stage is set for a revival that transitions from pandemic-driven discretionary projects to critical structural repairs.
Ellison’s insights, reported by the New York Post, suggest that the “lock-in” effect—where homeowners cling to low mortgage rates—will soon break. As interest rates stabilize, homeowners will be compelled to address overdue renovations, a necessity driven by the aging median home, now over 40 years old.
The home improvement giants, including Lowe’s and Home Depot, have been grappling with declining sales as consumers shift their spending habits. However, Ellison believes that once the Federal Reserve eases its grip on interest rates, consumers will feel more confident about moving or borrowing against their homes for renovations.
“This is a critical moment for the housing economy,” Ellison stated. “As homeowners face aging systems and structural needs, the demand for renovation will shift from optional to essential.” The expectation is that as the renovation cycle resumes, it will be led by professional contractors engaged in larger, complex jobs rather than simple DIY projects.
Industry analysts are closely monitoring this pivot. While 2025 may remain a transitional year characterized by flat growth, it serves as a preparatory phase for the anticipated upswing in 2026. Lowe’s strategic focus on professional contractors—enhancing loyalty programs and improving job-site delivery—positions the company to capture a larger market share as renovation demands rise.
Consumer confidence has been shaken by affordability issues and inventory shortages, but history shows that Americans view their homes as key investments. As inflation cools and real wages catch up, the high home values will likely lead to reinvestment in properties. Ellison’s forecasts align with broader economic views that suggest a “soft landing” engineered by central banks will normalize consumer behavior.
However, risks loom over this optimistic outlook. A resurgence in inflation or stubborn long-term interest rates could delay recovery. Ellison acknowledges that the consumer is currently “pressured,” evident in the decline of discretionary spending in categories like patio furniture and appliances.
The implications for the real estate sector are profound. If Lowe’s predictions hold true, 2026 could witness a simultaneous increase in home sales and renovation spending, which traditionally move in tandem. The decoupling seen today—where homeowners stay put and avoid renovations due to costs—is an anomaly that, when corrected, could unleash billions in economic activity.
As the market transitions, the “golden handcuffs” of low mortgage rates will eventually loosen, driven by life changes that prompt home turnover. Ellison’s assertion that homes do not repair themselves emphasizes the urgency for addressing deferred maintenance, especially as the aging of American homes accelerates.
With a calculated approach to the upcoming renovation cycle, Lowe’s is signaling to investors and consumers alike that the bottom is in sight. As the landscape evolves, operational excellence and deep integration with the professional trades will be crucial.
Stay tuned for more updates as the situation develops.
