NASA Panel Warns SpaceX’s Starship Lunar Lander Faces Delay
NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel has raised concerns about the timeline for SpaceX’s lunar lander version of the Starship, indicating it may not meet the necessary deadlines for the upcoming Artemis 3 mission scheduled for 2027. During a public meeting on September 19, 2023, panel members expressed doubts about the readiness of the Human Landing System (HLS) variant of Starship, suggesting it could be delayed by several years.
Concerns from the Safety Panel
Panelist Paul Hill noted that insights from a recent visit to SpaceX’s Starbase facility informed their assessment. Hill was accompanied by fellow panelists and former astronauts Charlie Precourt and Kent Rominger. He emphasized the significant challenges facing the HLS schedule, stating, “The HLS schedule is significantly challenged and, in our estimation, could be years late for a 2027 Artemis 3 moon landing.”
A critical issue highlighted by Hill involves the demonstration of cryogenic propellant transfer, essential for refueling Starship in low Earth orbit before its lunar journey. Progress on this front has been hindered by setbacks related to version 3 of Starship, which is the first variant designed to facilitate such transfers, along with ongoing enhancements to the version 3 Raptor engine.
While Hill refrained from detailing specific problems, Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX President, expressed her own concerns regarding propellant transfer during her remarks at World Space Business Week on September 16. She stated, “Hopefully it’s not as hard as some of my engineers think it could be.”
Praise for SpaceX’s Achievements
Despite the apprehensions regarding the timeline, the panel commended SpaceX for its impressive accomplishments, particularly the rapid launch cadence of the Falcon 9 rocket, largely driven by the Starlink project. Hill remarked that this launch tempo has fostered “unprecedented experience in spacecraft and booster manufacturing, launch preparation and flight operations.”
However, he cautioned that the competing priorities between the development of Starship and HLS could adversely affect the Artemis program’s schedule. The panel has previously identified safety risks associated with programs that experience low flight rates, such as the Space Launch System and Orion.
Panel member Bill Bray expressed broader concerns regarding the overall Artemis program. He confirmed that preparations for Artemis 2, scheduled for launch in early 2026, are progressing as planned. Yet, he described the pathways for Artemis 3 and subsequent missions as “uncertain and a little murky,” raising implications for the program’s safety and risk management.
Bray specifically pointed to the HLS and Axiom Space’s development of new lunar spacesuits as areas of concern due to their aggressive timelines. He warned, “Any delay in the delivery of these programs places the planned lunar landing in jeopardy of postponement and/or significant delay.” He stressed the need for a critical assessment of these programs in relation to the overall mission timeline to better understand achievable goals.
The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel plans to continue its review of the Starship HLS program, focusing on a comprehensive examination of the design and the implementation of cryogenic propellant transfer during future meetings.
