Arianespace Explores Boosting Ariane 6 Launch Rate Beyond 10 Annually
Arianespace is considering options to increase the launch rate of its Ariane 6 rocket beyond the current target of 10 launches per year, depending on demand from government and commercial sectors. During a press briefing on September 16, 2023, at the World Space Business Week conference in Paris, Arianespace Chief Executive David Cavaillolès indicated that the company is exploring scenarios where new satellite constellations could significantly influence demand for launch services.
Cavaillolès stated, “Now, we are reopening the case” for expanding capacity after initially concentrating on getting the Ariane 6 operational. He noted that while demand from established systems like SpaceX’s Starlink and various Chinese constellations may remain stagnant, emerging projects could tip the scales. Key among these are large institutional programs, such as the European IRIS2 constellation and commercial initiatives like Amazon’s Project Kuiper.
“If Kuiper — and I wish them to succeed — continues to accelerate, and at the same time you have some big institutional projects, then the market will really, really change, and in this case, we should prepare ourselves to increase the cadence,” he remarked.
Addressing Launch Bottlenecks
To manage the potential increase in launch frequency, Arianespace is evaluating how to address existing bottlenecks in the Ariane 6 launch process. Cavaillolès mentioned that enhancing production of the rocket’s solid rocket boosters and constructing a second launch pad in French Guiana are two options under consideration. While he did not provide specific timelines, he acknowledged that building a second pad “would take years and years” and involve significant costs.
“There are some blockers that are simpler to remove,” Cavaillolès said, referring to potential infrastructure upgrades at the launch site that could reduce campaign timelines. He emphasized the urgency of making these investment decisions soon, as demand for increased Ariane 6 launches may not fully manifest until around the end of this decade.
“If we think that, around 2029 or 2030, we need a higher cadence, then it is next year or the year after that we should make the decision,” he explained. The future of these investments may depend on whether another major constellation project emerges in the coming years.
“If tomorrow it’s confirmed that there is another customer wanting us and being ready to commit with us on a certain number of launchers per year, then we would have a sound basis to think seriously about those investments,” Cavaillolès added.
Current Launch Plans and Customer Expectations
As Arianespace works towards its current ceiling of 10 launches annually, it has successfully completed two launches of the Ariane 6 this year and anticipates two more by the end of 2023. Although this falls short of initial projections of five launches, Cavaillolès maintains that achieving four launches would still be considered positive, given that some forecasts suggested only two or three launches might occur.
Looking ahead to 2026, Arianespace aims to “more or less double” its launch rate. If the company manages to reach eight launches next year, it would mark the fastest ramp-up of a heavy-lift rocket in recent history.
Cavaillolès acknowledged the frustration expressed by customers, particularly Amazon’s Project Kuiper, which is Arianespace’s largest customer for the Ariane 6. During a conference talk on September 15, Ricky Freeman, an executive for Project Kuiper, highlighted that launch availability was his primary challenge, pointing to delays not only at Arianespace but also at other companies like Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance, which are also in the process of introducing new rocket systems.
“They want us to execute the contract and to do it as quickly as possible,” Cavaillolès noted, reiterating Arianespace’s commitment to meeting customer needs. He mentioned that the company would seek to give Project Kuiper access to any gaps in the launch schedule if other customers experience delays.
“Whatever we can do to accelerate Kuiper, we will do it,” he affirmed, adding, “Their message is that they want us to go fast, and the faster, the better.”
As Arianespace navigates these complexities, the potential for increased launch frequency remains a key focus, with the company poised to adapt to evolving market demands.
