Trump’s Immigration Approval Rating Dips Below Water in New Poll
President Donald Trump faces a significant challenge as a recent poll conducted by Emerson College reveals a decline in his approval rating regarding his handling of immigration. The survey, released on July 21, 2025, indicates that only 45 percent of respondents approve of Trump’s immigration policies, while 46 percent disapprove. This marks the first time during his second term that his approval rating on this critical issue has fallen below water.
Immigration has been a cornerstone of Trump’s presidency, shaping his campaign and administration from the outset. He pledged to enact mass deportations and expand border infrastructure. His administration’s approach, which includes a notable increase in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids and a strong focus on detention facilities, has consistently underscored his commitment to this issue.
When Trump returned to the White House in January, he held high overall approval ratings. However, these numbers have steadily declined, particularly following months of economic difficulty and mounting criticism of various policies, including immigration and his recently passed tax legislation, which he described as a “big, beautiful bill.”
Poll Details and Trends
The Emerson College poll surveyed 1,400 U.S. voters from July 21 to July 22, with a margin of error of 2.5 percent. In comparison, an earlier poll from April indicated a 45 percent approval rating alongside a 44 percent disapproval rating. Trump’s ratings had been more favorable in March, when he garnered a 48 percent approval rating against a 40 percent disapproval rating. Earlier this month, another poll conducted by CNN indicated that Trump’s immigration approval rating had reached a record low.
Political analysts are noting the implications of this decline. Craig Agranoff, a political analyst, commented on the situation, stating, “The decline underscores a notable erosion of support on what has long been one of his defining issues.” He attributed this shift to growing public discomfort with the administration’s aggressive deportation policies and plans for expansive new detention centers, which polls show a majority of Americans oppose.
Agranoff further emphasized, “Sustained low approval here could weaken his leverage on other priorities and signal vulnerabilities for Republicans in future races.”
Implications for Future Elections
Trump’s declining approval numbers on immigration could threaten one of the key pillars of his campaign as the political landscape gears up for the 2026 midterm elections. Analysts suggest that as the election approaches, this drop in support may significantly influence voter sentiment and party dynamics.
While Trump has historically downplayed polls that do not align with his narrative, prioritizing the enthusiasm of his base over broader consensus, the current trend presents challenges. A sustained decrease in approval could impact his ability to mobilize support not only for immigration but for other key priorities as well.
As the political climate evolves, the ramifications of these approval ratings will likely play a crucial role in shaping the strategies and outcomes for both parties in the upcoming elections.
