Poll Shows Tight Race for New Jersey Governor’s Seat
Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli is closing the gap in the New Jersey gubernatorial race against Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill, according to a new poll released on September 20, 2024. The Quinnipiac University survey indicates that Sherrill holds a lead of just nine points, with 49 percent of likely voters supporting her compared to Ciattarelli’s 41 percent. The results signal heightened competition in a state that has traditionally leaned Democratic.
As the first major electoral contest following the Republicans’ success in the 2024 presidential election, this race is being observed closely for indications of voter sentiment heading into the 2026 cycle. Both parties consider the outcome a crucial early gauge of support for their platforms.
### Poll Details and Voter Concerns
The Quinnipiac University poll surveyed 1,238 likely New Jersey voters from September 11 to September 15, with a margin of error of 3.9 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Ciattarelli garnered 42 percent of the vote compared to Sherrill’s 51 percent. The survey also included minor party candidates, with Vic Kaplan of the Libertarian Party and Joanne Kuniansky of the Socialist Workers Party each receiving 1 percent support.
Voter priorities reveal that taxes are the predominant concern, with 30 percent citing it as their top issue, closely followed by ethics in government at 14 percent. Both candidates have similar favorability ratings, with Ciattarelli at 40 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable, while Sherrill also stands at 40 percent favorable and 29 percent unfavorable.
### Political Analysis
Political analysts are weighing the implications of these findings. Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor at Columbia University, commented on the significance of the poll results, stating, “Sherrill’s lead is no better at this stage than you might expect for a Democratic candidate in a blue state. Her support is below 50 percent, and the gap could be closed.”
Both candidates are ramping up their campaigning efforts as Election Day approaches on November 4, 2024. Ciattarelli has recently emphasized his focus on state issues, stating on social media, “New Jersey is a mess — and all Mikie Sherrill wants to do is talk about President Trump!? I’m focused on YOU and New Jersey issues.” He has outlined plans to lower electricity bills and cap property taxes.
Conversely, Sherrill has criticized Ciattarelli’s proposals, arguing that they could negatively impact families struggling with rising costs. She remarked, “Prices are already skyrocketing, from groceries to utility bills. But as New Jersey families struggle to make ends meet, Jack continues to talk about a 10 percent sales tax. It’s unwise. It’s irresponsible. It’s going to hurt our families.”
As campaigns increasingly target undecided independents, significant advertising efforts are expected in both the New York and Philadelphia media markets. The outcome of this race will likely serve as a pivotal indicator of voter sentiment leading into the next election cycle.
