U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low as Trends Shift
The fertility rate in the United States has dropped to a historic low, registering less than 1.6 kids per woman in 2024, according to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday. This decline marks a significant shift from the rate of approximately 2.1 kids per woman, which is considered necessary for a population to replace itself. Over the past two decades, the U.S. fertility rate has steadily declined as many women opt to delay childbirth or forgo it altogether.
This latest statistic aligns the U.S. with fertility rates seen in several Western European nations, as reported by World Bank data. In response to these alarming trends, the previous administration led by Donald Trump implemented initiatives aimed at increasing birth rates. These included an executive order designed to enhance access to and affordability of in vitro fertilization, as well as proposals for “baby bonuses” to incentivize couples to start families.
Despite these efforts, experts like Leslie Root, a researcher at the University of Colorado Boulder, suggest that there is no cause for alarm. “We’re seeing this as part of an ongoing process of fertility delay. We know that the U.S. population is still growing, and we still have a natural increase — more births than deaths,” she explained.
The CDC’s report for 2024 provided updated birth data, revealing that the total fertility rate has dropped from 1.621 in 2023 to 1.599 this year. Historical context shows that the rate was around 3.5 in the early 1960s but fell to 1.7 by 1976 after the Baby Boom ended. A temporary rise to 2.1 was noted in 2007, but the trend has since reversed, with only a slight uptick in 2014.
The data indicates a general decline in birth rates across most age groups among women. Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina, highlighted the societal factors contributing to this trend. Individuals are increasingly marrying later and expressing concerns about their financial stability, access to health insurance, and the resources needed to raise children in a secure environment. “Worry is not a good moment to have kids,” Guzzo noted, emphasizing that these concerns are contributing to stagnant birth rates.
The new report from the CDC also noted a 1% increase in births, translating to approximately 33,000 additional births last year, bringing the total number of births to over 3.6 million. However, this figure contrasts with preliminary data that suggested increases in births among women in their late 20s and early 30s. The revised report revealed declines for women in their 20s and early 30s, with no significant changes for those in their late 30s.
CDC officials attributed these discrepancies to recalibrations based on updated U.S. Census population estimates. As the population of women of childbearing age has expanded due to immigration, it moderates any increases in birth rates within those demographics, as Root explained.
As the U.S. grapples with these shifting fertility trends, experts urge a broader discussion that encompasses critical support systems such as parental leave and affordable childcare. Addressing these larger needs may be essential for influencing birth rates meaningfully, rather than relying solely on symbolic measures.
