Experts Warn Next Pandemic Could Be More Catastrophic Than COVID-19
On December 30, 2019, as reports emerged of an unusual pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan, China, Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, sensed a looming crisis. In his new book, co-authored with journalist Mark Olshaker, titled “The Big One: How We Must Prepare for Future Deadly Pandemics,” Osterholm compares this moment to a seismologist detecting early tremors before a potentially devastating earthquake. He reflects on whether the situation warrants public alarm or if it is merely background noise.
Osterholm argues that while billions are spent on military preparedness, scant resources are allocated to defend against microbial threats. He cites the 1918 influenza pandemic, which claimed as many as 100 million lives globally, far exceeding the death toll of World War I. The COVID-19 pandemic has been described as a “microbial 9/11,” reshaping global politics and daily life within weeks. Yet, Osterholm suggests this was merely a rehearsal for a more severe threat he terms “the Big One.”
The Coming Threat of a Lethal Virus
In his book, Osterholm illustrates a hypothetical scenario that reads like a disaster film, set in a Somali village. A farmer, Warsame Osman, falls ill, passing the infection to his family. Local health worker Jamilah Shamshi faces a surge of patients with unknown symptoms. The contagion spreads rapidly, transcending borders as an aid worker travels to Paris and a student returns to Atlanta. Within days, the disease infects multiple continents, illustrating how fast modern life facilitates the spread of pathogens.
Osterholm emphasizes the potential for a new virus to be as contagious as COVID-19 and as lethal as SARS. He bluntly states that in this ongoing contest, “Mother Nature still has the upper hand.” His warnings are grounded in historical context, noting that past pandemics, such as HIV, and even previously dismissed viruses like Zika, have shown how quickly the situation can escalate from manageable to catastrophic.
He highlights that in today’s interconnected world, infectious diseases can spread rapidly, turning isolated outbreaks into global crises. “Humanity has become an extraordinarily efficient biological mixing bowl,” he cautions, underscoring the speed at which viruses can evolve and spread.
Lessons from COVID-19
Osterholm reflects on the missteps during the COVID-19 pandemic, noting how public health messaging faltered. For example, on March 2, 2020, the US Surgeon General advised against purchasing masks, only for guidance to shift weeks later. This inconsistency eroded trust, which is vital for effective public health communication. He emphasizes that “the only currency public health has is trust,” and the pandemic has illustrated just how fragile that trust can be.
The supply chain disruptions were also alarming. Hospitals faced shortages of personal protective equipment, and testing kits were delayed. Even in the wealthiest countries, the lack of surge capacity became evident, revealing systemic vulnerabilities. Osterholm critiques the reliance on unproven treatments promoted by some leaders, further damaging public confidence at a critical time.
Despite the rapid development of vaccines and treatments, Osterholm insists that technology alone cannot ensure safety. “A robust and effective response will only be possible if public health officials and government leaders work together for a common goal,” he states. He stresses that trust is not merely beneficial; it is essential for effective public health initiatives.
Osterholm’s major concern is not solely the science behind viruses but the societal response to pandemics. He argues that the success of containment strategies relies heavily on the compliance of the public. He finds it unreasonable that some individuals resist public health measures, like wearing masks and getting vaccinated, citing personal freedom as a reason.
He concludes that preparedness for pandemics must become part of society’s fundamental structure, acknowledging that respiratory viruses will continue to be a fact of life. The COVID-19 pandemic served as a stark reminder of humanity’s vulnerabilities within its global systems. While it resulted in significant loss, Osterholm warns that future pandemics could be even more devastating.
The message is clear: as dangerous pathogens evolve and spread with unprecedented speed, the next major outbreak could be just around the corner. If society does not learn from the lessons of COVID-19, the consequences could be catastrophic. The time to prepare is now, as the reality of the Big One remains a haunting possibility.
