Orange County Schools Face Enrollment Crisis, Closure Talks Begin
A significant decline in public school enrollment in Orange County has prompted discussions about the potential closure or consolidation of some elementary schools. This year, Orange County Public Schools (OCPS) reported a drop of approximately 7,000 students, leading to concerns about the future of nearly half-empty campuses. The decrease primarily affected elementary schools across the county, including long-established communities like Conway, MetroWest, and Winter Park, as well as rapidly growing areas such as Horizon West.
The loss in student numbers translates to an estimated shortfall of nearly $50 million in state funding per student. This financial hit has forced OCPS to reassign over 100 teachers and left several schools with more space than students. According to Rory Salimbene, OCPS’s chief facilities officer, preliminary discussions have commenced regarding the viability of shutting down or merging underutilized schools.
Enrollment Declines and Financial Implications
Currently, only 10 of the 130-plus elementary schools in the district saw an increase of more than 1% in enrollment. Most schools experienced an average decline of about 45 students, equivalent to roughly two classrooms. The surge in enrollment decline has been attributed to factors such as Florida’s expanding voucher program, which allows public funding for private schooling and homeschooling, alongside decreasing birth rates.
Statewide, Florida’s public school enrollment is projected to drop by over 70,000 students this year. Other districts are grappling with similar challenges, leading some to explore campus closures as a solution. Salimbene emphasized the need to identify “significantly underutilized” schools and evaluate opportunities for consolidation.
While immediate closures are unlikely by the next school year, campuses operating at near half-capacity may consider shutting down parts of their facilities to mitigate costs. Despite the enrollment challenges, OCPS plans to open two new schools in August 2026 in Lake Nona and Horizon West, aimed at accommodating students from elementary schools that have lost enrollment.
Impact on Established and New Schools
The most alarming trend identified in the recent student count is the decline in enrollment at newly built schools, which were originally designed to accommodate a growing student population. For instance, Castleview Elementary School, opened in 2019 to alleviate overcrowding at three other schools, has reported a decrease of around 60 students this year. Other schools in the Horizon West area, previously noted for rapid growth, are also experiencing similar declines.
Long-established schools have faced even greater enrollment challenges. MetroWest Elementary School, which has been part of the community since the 1980s, recorded a staggering 20% drop in student numbers, losing 112 students and now enrolling only 448 on a campus built for about 840. Similarly, Conway Elementary School saw a loss of 64 students, bringing its total to 370 on a campus designed for 640.
When enrollment falls to about half-capacity, OCPS must consider changing attendance zones, merging schools, or, in extreme cases, closing them. Vice Chair of the school board, Melissa Byrd, acknowledged that some campuses are concerning due to their low enrollment levels, although she refrained from discussing specific schools, indicating that deliberations are still in their infancy.
In contrast, some schools in the Apopka area have experienced growth. For instance, Zellwood Elementary School gained 44 students this year, surpassing its capacity of approximately 630.
Despite the shrinking public school enrollment, the overall population in Orlando continues to rise. David Myers, a real estate agent in Lake Nona, noted that while the housing market has slowed due to high interest rates, there remains a steady demand for homes, particularly from families with school-aged children. “There are still quite a few families. I would probably say at any given point, 50% of my customers are families,” Myers remarked.
As OCPS navigates these challenges, the ongoing discussions and potential decisions regarding school closures or consolidations will significantly impact the educational landscape in Orange County in the coming years.
