Trump Criticizes Jobs Report as ‘Rigged’ Amid Controversy
President Donald Trump has publicly accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of orchestrating a “scam” concerning the recent revisions to the jobs report. In a message posted on Truth Social, Trump claimed that the figures were manipulated to portray Republicans and himself negatively. Following these accusations, he dismissed Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the BLS commissioner, stating that she had committed “the biggest miscalculations in over 50 years.” However, evidence suggests that the revisions made by the BLS are neither unprecedented nor indicative of corruption.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, established in 1884, operates independently within the US Department of Labor. While the Labor Secretary oversees the BLS, it is managed by a commissioner appointed by the Senate. The BLS plays a vital role in gathering data on various economic issues, including prices, inflation, productivity, spending, wages, workplace injuries, and employment figures. With a workforce exceeding 2,000, the BLS employs professional economists and survey takers who engage with businesses and individuals to collect pertinent information.
Understanding how the BLS gathers jobs data is essential to contextualize the recent claims. The BLS employs two primary surveys: the household survey, which includes in-person interviews to determine employment status and demographic data, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey. The CES survey collects information from thousands of businesses and government agencies through various methods, including phone calls and online surveys. While participation in the CES survey is voluntary, certain states, such as New Mexico, Oregon, and South Carolina, mandate businesses to provide data.
Once the BLS collects the data, economists edit it to identify any inaccuracies. When errors are found, BLS staff reach out for clarification. The data is then prepared for a monthly report, estimating employment, hours worked, and earnings. To ensure accuracy, BLS economists apply seasonal adjustments to smooth out fluctuations resulting from seasonal hiring trends.
The BLS releases its Employment Situation Summary, commonly referred to as the jobs report, on the first Friday of each month. This report includes data from both surveys, revealing demographic information, the unemployment rate, and job growth or decline in the economy. Each report also revises the job totals for the previous two months.
Revisions occur because initial job numbers are considered preliminary, as some respondents may not provide payroll data by the deadline. The BLS continues to collect data even after the report is published, leading to adjustments when more complete information becomes available. The recent revisions, notably for May and June, were substantial but not historically unprecedented. For instance, the May total was revised down to 19,000 jobs from an initial estimate of 139,000, a revision of 120,000 jobs. Similarly, June’s numbers were adjusted to 14,000 jobs, down from an earlier estimate of 147,000, totaling a revision of 133,000 jobs.
While these changes may appear significant, they are consistent with historical data. Since 2003, the average monthly revision has been approximately 51,000 jobs. In comparison, 2020 and 2021 saw even larger fluctuations in job numbers due to the pandemic, including a record revision of 679,000 jobs in March 2020.
Trump’s criticisms of labor data are not new. In August 2024, he expressed discontent over a preliminary annual revision indicating that the US economy had added 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. While he labeled this revision a “record,” it was smaller than a 902,000 job revision from 2009. Additionally, Trump has pointed out that the BLS revised job totals for August and September 2024 downward before the presidential election by a combined 112,000 positions. However, similar revisions have occurred in previous years without controversy.
The BLS data is crucial for various sectors, influencing decisions on investment, pay, and hiring. The Federal Reserve, in particular, relies heavily on this data to inform its monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of accurate data during a recent press conference, stating, “Good data helps not just the Fed, it helps the government, but also helps the private sector.” The BLS data also assists organizations like the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Conference Board in understanding economic trends.
While alternatives to BLS data exist, such as the ADP monthly payrolls report, they often lack the reliability and comprehensiveness of BLS statistics. The BLS report is regarded as the gold standard among economists, who recognize its importance in accurately capturing the complexities of the US economy. According to former BLS Commissioner William Beach, “BLS is the finest statistical agency in the entire world; its numbers are trusted all over the world.”
As the discourse surrounding unemployment data continues, the integrity of the BLS remains a critical consideration for stakeholders across the board.
