Trump Sets 50-50 Odds on EU Trade Deal Amid Urgent Talks
UPDATE: President Donald Trump has just announced a 50-50 chance of reaching a trade deal with the European Union to lower tariffs, as urgent negotiations intensify. Speaking to reporters on July 25, 2025, before departing for a golf trip in Scotland, Trump highlighted a potential agreement despite earlier threats of significant tariffs.
Trump’s comments come as EU diplomats express optimism for a breakthrough. “I think the EU has a pretty good chance of making a deal,” Trump stated, signaling a shift in tone as U.S. and EU negotiators work closely together. However, he warned that if an agreement is not reached by August 1, the EU could face a staggering 30% tariff on most goods.
The stakes are high. Trump has already imposed a 25% tariff on cars and auto parts, as well as a 50% duty on copper. Furthermore, new tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors could emerge as early as next month. The urgency of these negotiations underscores the potential impact on global trade and economic relations.
The EU, on the other hand, is pushing for a baseline tariff of 15% on most exports, which they hope will also apply to heavily taxed categories like automobiles. They are also seeking exemptions for specific sectors, including aviation and medical devices. The possibility of reduced tariffs for steel and aluminum products is on the table, but the outcome remains uncertain.
As negotiations progress, Trump hinted at issuing around 200 additional letters to set tariff levels for other trading partners, emphasizing that most rates are effectively settled. He dismissed the idea that the United Kingdom could negotiate a digital services tax in exchange for reduced tariffs, stating, “If I do it for one, I have to do it for all.”
Looking to Canada, Trump expressed skepticism about reaching an agreement before the deadline, indicating that they may end up paying tariffs without a negotiation. He has threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian goods to 35%, an increase from the existing 25% rate.
In contrast, Trump remains hopeful about upcoming trade talks with China, claiming that both nations are within the “confines of a deal.” He also praised Australia for recently agreeing to lift restrictions on U.S. beef imports, marking a significant step forward in trade relations. Trump stated, “Australia was great. They opened up beef yesterday for the first time ever,” highlighting the importance of these negotiations.
As this situation develops, the implications for global trade are significant. Stakeholders and analysts are closely monitoring the negotiations, knowing that the outcomes will resonate beyond the U.S. and EU.
Stay tuned for more updates on this urgent and evolving story.
