The United States is positioned to enhance its global influence through energy dominance, potentially eclipsing China’s grip, particularly in the Middle East. This shift has been underscored by recent geopolitical developments, including the ongoing conflict in Gaza and various military engagements in the region, which reveal the limitations of both Chinese and Iranian power. A comprehensive analysis indicates that the U.S. is leveraging its energy resources not only as a means of hard power but also as a tool of “soft power,” allowing it to shape international preferences without resorting to military force.
Energy Diplomacy and Strategic Partnerships
The aftermath of the shale gas revolution has transformed the United States into a leading producer and exporter of natural gas. With modern liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, the U.S. can rapidly respond to energy crises across the globe, from Europe facing shortages due to the Ukraine conflict to instability in the Middle East. Current U.S. prices are significantly lower—nearly a third of European rates—providing Washington with a substantial advantage in influencing regional energy security.
Gulf Arab states, traditionally reliant on their hydrocarbon exports, are now more inclined to engage with U.S. gas firms rather than their Chinese counterparts. This is largely due to Washington’s geopolitical leverage and the perceived reliability of American energy resources. As these states look to stabilize demand and pricing, they recognize the importance of aligning with U.S. energy interests.
To maximize this strategic advantage, U.S. policymakers are encouraged to promote targeted financing plans aimed at joint ventures in nuclear and gas infrastructure projects in countries such as Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. These nations, wary of Chinese or Russian influence, represent ideal candidates for U.S. support that could include technology transfers and nonproliferation commitments.
The U.S. still leads globally in nuclear power generation, bolstering its position with advanced reactor designs and regulatory expertise. The recent initiatives under President Trump to increase nuclear capacity through streamlined licensing and investments will not only enhance domestic energy production but will also strengthen U.S. influence internationally.
Challenges for China and Regional Implications
China’s ambition to expand its influence in the Middle East and Asia faces significant hurdles. Despite its Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing struggles with trust and transparency issues that undermine its long-term strategic goals in the region. Chinese firms, while capable of large-scale projects, often deliver solutions that lack the reliability and transparency that Western partners demand. This creates an opening for U.S. energy companies to fill the gap.
For example, Taiwan’s recent decision to shut down its last nuclear reactor in May 2025 has raised alarms over energy vulnerability. The island now relies on imported LNG for nearly 98% of its energy needs, a shift projected to cost up to $2 billion by 2030. With limited gas storage, Taiwan’s dependence on external energy sources exposes it to geopolitical pressures, particularly from China.
Critics have labeled Taiwan’s decision as a strategic misstep, reminiscent of historical underestimations of energy independence. As Taiwan’s technology sector grapples with rising energy costs, it may need to re-evaluate its energy strategy to enhance resilience and autonomy.
In this complex landscape, U.S. energy engagement in the Middle East has implications that extend beyond regional borders. A robust American presence in Gulf energy markets, particularly through LNG and civil nuclear exports, could solidify ties with key nations such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. This would reduce their reliance on Chinese partnerships and foster a more aligned geopolitical posture with the United States.
Energy transactions often serve as a conduit for broader cooperation, bringing in elements of military collaboration and digital infrastructure initiatives. By strategically promoting energy partnerships, the U.S. can reinforce alliances while applying diplomatic pressure on nations uncertain about China’s intentions.
While China’s efforts to establish itself as a formidable power through infrastructure investments in the Middle East are substantial, U.S. energy abundance presents a counterbalance. The flexibility of U.S. natural gas exports and the strategic implications of nuclear diplomacy may redefine traditional power dynamics.
Taiwan’s energy transition highlights the importance of energy policy as a tool of geopolitical leverage. The potential need for a diversification strategy, including the adoption of small modular reactors (SMRs), could restore some energy independence. In the short term, enhancing energy storage and diversifying LNG import agreements with the U.S. could mitigate the risks associated with its current energy reliance.
The evolving landscape of global energy politics suggests that energy is not merely a commodity; it is a form of power. The U.S. is poised to leverage its energy resources to expand its influence while challenging the existing status quo dominated by China. As nations reassess their energy strategies and partnerships, the implications will resonate far beyond their borders, shaping the geopolitical landscape for years to come.
