Congress Faces Challenges as Midterms Approach, Experts Warn

Political experts suggest that Congress is unlikely to increase its legislative activity as the 2026 midterm elections approach. A noticeable rise in executive orders has contrasted sharply with Congress’s reduced legislative output this year. According to Todd Belt, director of the political management program at George Washington University, “Politicians are risk-averse creatures,” indicating that a cautious approach is typical during election years.

In 2025, President Donald Trump signed a total of 225 executive orders, exceeding his first-term total within just 11 months. Meanwhile, a report from The Washington Post highlighted that Congress recorded its lowest legislative output in a new presidency’s first year, passing only 38 bills by December 19. Although Trump signed six additional bills shortly after, this brings the total to 44 for the year. This figure stands in stark contrast to the 76 laws he signed during his initial term, the 68 signed by Joe Biden, and the 115 enacted under Barack Obama.

Casey Burgat, legislative affairs program director at George Washington University, noted a lack of enthusiasm for legislative initiatives. Despite the Republican Party controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress, the narrow margins in the House and Senate hinder significant accomplishments. Burgat pointed out that divisions within the GOP complicate the legislative process. While members may agree on overarching policies, disagreements often arise on specific details, allowing Trump to govern predominantly through executive orders.

The political landscape presents challenges for Republicans heading into the midterms. Seth McKee, a politics professor at Oklahoma State University, remarked that the party’s flagship legislation, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” has not resonated well with the public. For representatives in safe Republican districts, support for the president’s policies may suffice. However, those in swing districts face a complicated narrative as they campaign for re-election.

Burgat indicated that Democrats, who currently lack control in Washington, are in a favorable position to critique what they describe as a “do-nothing Congress.” This strategy has historically been effective for minority parties. Nevertheless, Burgat cautioned that voter motivation will likely hinge more on broader economic sentiments and public perception of Trump’s performance rather than the legislative stagnation itself.

Historically, the party of the sitting president has suffered losses in the House during midterm elections, with eight out of ten instances over the past four decades leading to decreased representation. In 2018, Trump’s Republicans lost 40 House seats, raising concerns for the party as the 2026 elections approach. The Cook Political Report currently identifies only 17 of the 435 House seats as toss-ups, while two Senate seats are also marked as competitive.

Despite Congress’s low output in 2025, experts noted that the GOP’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” encompassed numerous policy priorities within a single piece of legislation. Charles Hunt, a politics professor at Boise State University, observed a trend towards omnibus legislating, where multiple legislative priorities are combined into one extensive bill. He explained that this approach may create a perception of reduced legislative activity, despite significant policy output.

While Congress has faced criticism for its dysfunctionality, Hunt acknowledged that Speaker of the House Mike Johnson encounters distinct challenges within his caucus. The presence of both far-right members and those more centrist complicates consensus-building, particularly with the looming midterm elections.

Looking forward, Belt does not anticipate heightened legislative activity from Congress in 2026, barring specific budgetary issues. He speculated that if the courts limit Trump’s executive powers, Congress might respond with legislation to enable actions that the Supreme Court would otherwise constrain. Additionally, unresolved issues such as potential lapses in Obamacare subsidies may prompt legislative reconsideration, influenced by public sentiment.

In summary, as the midterms draw closer, Congress is expected to remain cautious, prioritizing budget-related matters over new policy initiatives. The complex dynamics within the GOP and the political landscape set the stage for a uniquely challenging electoral environment.