Voters Prefer Moderates in 2028 Election, New Poll Reveals

A recent survey by Emerson College Polling indicates a significant preference for moderate candidates in the upcoming 2028 presidential election. The poll revealed that voters favor moderates over candidates leaning towards either extreme of the political spectrum, suggesting a potential shift in voter sentiment.

The survey presented hypothetical scenarios without naming specific candidates, focusing instead on broad labels: “moderate,” “MAGA,” and “progressive.” The results showed that a moderate Democrat garnered support from 47% of respondents, compared to 38% for a “Make America Great Again” Republican. Conversely, a moderate Republican outperformed a progressive Democrat with 48% to 36% in the same matchup.

Independent voters demonstrated an even stronger inclination towards moderate candidates, highlighting a possible trend towards centrist politics. Other matchups, including moderate versus moderate or progressive versus MAGA candidates, yielded closer results.

Jake Neiheisel, a political scientist at the University at Buffalo, noted that while voters express a preference for moderates, this does not always translate to actual votes. “We have had a penchant in recent years for what’s sometimes described as leapfrog representation,” he explained. This means that when voters are dissatisfied with one extreme, they may swing to the other extreme rather than settling on a moderate candidate.

Seth McKee, a political professor at Oklahoma State University, highlighted the advantages that centrist candidates can gain at the ballot box. He emphasized that partisan voters tend to remain loyal to their parties, making moderate candidates appealing to crucial swing voters.

Peter Loge, director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University, pointed out the contradiction between voter preferences and actual candidate representation. He remarked that “one man’s moderate is another man’s extremist,” suggesting that perceptions of moderation can vary significantly among the electorate.

Research on electoral outcomes for moderate candidates is mixed, according to Loge. He noted that moderates often struggle to gain traction during primary seasons, where politically active voters are typically more extreme. When numerous moderate candidates split the non-extreme vote, it often allows a more extreme candidate to win the nomination.

Looking ahead to the 2028 election, Neiheisel anticipates a matchup between a progressive Democrat and a MAGA Republican. “Parties tend to double down on whatever they thought that they weren’t sufficiently enough of, and also what worked,” he said. This could result in Democrats leaning towards more progressive candidates while Republicans maintain their previous strategies.

In contrast, McKee predicts a contest between a moderate Democrat and a MAGA Republican. He highlighted the GOP’s challenge in identifying a moderate candidate who can secure the nomination. “The real advantage Democrats have… is their talent comes from governors,” he noted, mentioning several moderate Democratic governors, including Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, as potential contenders for the presidency.

McKee also identified California Governor Gavin Newsom as a possible progressive candidate for 2028, though he noted that Newsom’s association with California liberalism might hinder his appeal in broader contexts. The primary calendar, which heavily features Southern states early on, also presents challenges for candidates like Newsom.

Despite her recent election as governor, McKee believes that Abigail Spanberger of Virginia may enter the presidential race, driven by her aspirations and the state’s unique one-term limit for governors. “Once she’s sworn in, she’s a lame duck,” he explained, adding that her political ambitions may push her to seek higher office sooner rather than later.

The most likely moderate Republican candidate, according to McKee, is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who he believes could perform well against a progressive Democrat. “The voter is going to be much happier with the centrist matchup than the extremes,” he concluded.

This polling data provides insight into the evolving preferences of voters as they prepare for the 2028 election, indicating a notable desire for moderate leadership amidst a polarized political landscape.