As tensions continue to escalate between Iran and Israel, the international community is closely monitoring developments. The latest updates from the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reveal a complex web of military actions and diplomatic maneuvers that are reshaping the geopolitical landscape.
In a significant development, Iranian leaders have refrained from issuing explicit threats of retaliation against the United States following recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) issued a statement warning of “regrettable responses,” but the absence of coordinated threats suggests internal communication challenges as Iranian leaders seek to evade Israeli strikes.
Diplomatic Moves and Military Actions
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi is scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23. This meeting follows Russia’s condemnation of the US strikes, with the Kremlin issuing veiled threats likely intended to create unease among Western audiences. Meanwhile, Israel has continued its strike campaign against Iran, targeting missile, drone, and air defense capabilities. A notable strike targeted equipment used by Iran to produce solid fuel for ballistic missiles, potentially hindering Iran’s missile development efforts.
Russia’s response to the US strikes has been vocal, with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs labeling the actions a violation of the UN Charter. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned of potential chaos if countries interpret self-defense rights as they see fit. The Kremlin’s use of Dmitry Medvedev to issue threats is a familiar tactic, aimed at stoking fear among Western decision-makers.
Regional and Global Implications
The IRGC has implicitly threatened US bases in the region, citing increased vulnerability due to the dispersion and size of these installations. Iranian media have widely circulated these threats, although a reported internet blackout in Iran has limited access to some sources. The Iranian parliament has conditionally approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane, pending final approval from the Supreme National Security Council.
In response to the US strikes, President Donald Trump stated that no further strikes would occur unless Iran or its proxies retaliate against US interests. However, Trump warned that future attacks would be more severe if Iran does not pursue peace. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the US is prepared to impose costs on Iran if they attack American personnel.
Reactions from Iranian-Backed Militias
Several Iranian-backed militias, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, have condemned the US airstrikes but have not claimed any retaliatory attacks against the US. The Houthis have threatened to attack US-linked vessels in the Red Sea if the US becomes further involved in the Iran-Israel conflict. Similarly, the Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah has issued threats against US bases in the region.
Continued Israeli Airstrikes
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have persisted in targeting Iranian military assets, conducting strikes on ballistic missile and drone capabilities. A series of airstrikes targeted the Imam Hussein strategic missile base, reportedly housing long-range Khorramshahr ballistic missiles. The IDF’s strikes on this base represent the longest-range operation since the conflict began, with jets traveling 2,200 kilometers.
In addition to targeting missile bases, the IDF has struck facilities producing solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles, as well as missile launchers, air defense factories, and UAV headquarters across various Iranian provinces. These actions are part of Israel’s broader strategy to degrade Iran’s military capabilities.
Looking Ahead
As the situation unfolds, the potential for further escalation remains high. The international community is closely watching the diplomatic engagements between Iran and Russia, as well as the military actions by Israel and the US. The strategic dynamics in the region are shifting, with significant implications for global security and economic stability.
Experts warn that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt global oil markets, while continued military actions could lead to broader regional conflicts. The coming days will be critical in determining whether diplomatic solutions can be found or if the conflict will intensify further.
