Texas Voters Divided Over GOP Redistricting Plan Ahead of Midterms
Texas voters are sharply divided over the Republican Party’s plan to redraw congressional maps, a move that could potentially add five more GOP House seats before the upcoming midterm elections. According to a recent survey conducted by Emerson College Polling on August 11-12, 2023, 38 percent of voters opposed the proposal, while 36 percent expressed support. The remaining 26 percent were undecided.
Support for the redistricting initiative is notably higher among Republican voters, with 58 percent in favor compared to just 15 percent of Democrats and 24 percent of independents. This partisan divide highlights the contentious nature of the redistricting process in Texas, which has significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Congress.
In a dramatic political maneuver, Texas Democrats have fled the state to deny the legislature the quorum needed to advance the redistricting proposal. This tactic aims to stall the ongoing special session, although Governor Greg Abbott has indicated plans to call another session to push the proposal forward. The redistricting plan, which has garnered backing from former President Donald Trump, could enable the GOP to strengthen its position in the House, where they currently hold 25 of 38 congressional seats in Texas.
When asked about Trump’s assertion that Republicans in Texas are “entitled to five more congressional seats,” 40 percent of respondents agreed, while 38 percent disagreed, and 22 percent remained neutral. If the redistricting plan is approved, it could shift the congressional representation to a 30-8 advantage for Republicans.
The political landscape surrounding this issue is further complicated by the threats facing Texas House Democrats who have chosen to leave the state. These legislators face significant consequences, including hefty fines for breaking quorum and potential arrest. In the Emerson poll, 41 percent of voters supported the arrest of these Democrats, while 37 percent opposed it, and 22 percent were undecided.
Key figures such as Senator Jon Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are actively participating in the redistricting debate. Cornyn has called for federal assistance to locate the absent Texas Democrats, while a judge in Illinois recently denied Paxton’s request to hold these legislators in contempt for their actions. This political drama is unfolding against the backdrop of a competitive primary race for the Senate in 2026, where Paxton is challenging the incumbent.
Despite the controversies, a majority of supporters for both Cornyn and Paxton believe that the quorum-breaking legislators should face legal repercussions, with support for arrest significantly higher among Paxton’s backers. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 active registered voters in Texas, has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, providing a snapshot of the attitudes surrounding this pivotal issue as the midterms approach.
